Backgammon: Luck or Skill?

Where the luck is

Every turn you roll two dice, so there are 36 equally likely rolls (6 × 6, counting 3-1 and 1-3 as different). On average a roll moves you 8⅙ pips — doubles count four times. A run of big doubles at the right moment can win a game no matter how well the other side plays. That's the luck, and there's no denying it.

Where the skill is

But each of those rolls can be played in several ways — often many — and the choice is yours. Good players pick moves that leave fewer bad rolls for themselves and more for their opponent. The difference between a strong move and a weak one might be "my blot gets hit 11 times in 36" versus "17 times in 36". Do that every turn for a whole match and the dice can't save the weaker player.

Skill also includes knowing when to stop fighting and race, when to hold a point and when to give it up, and how to avoid a gammon when you're losing. None of that depends on the dice.

Odds of hitting a blot

How many of the 36 rolls hit a single checker at a given distance, assuming nothing blocks the way:

Two lessons hide in this table. Within 6 points, a blot is in real danger — every distance from 1 to 6 can be hit directly by one die. Beyond 6, it can only be hit by a combination of both dice, so the danger drops sharply: a blot 7 away is almost three times safer than one 6 away. Blocked points on the way make combination shots even rarer.

Odds of entering from the bar

When your checker is on the bar, the number of closed points in your opponent's home board decides your chances:

This is why building your home board matters: each extra point you close makes entering much harder, and a closed board means your opponent can't move at all. More on that in bar rules.

Other useful numbers

• Doubles: 6 rolls of 36, or 1 in 6.
• A specific number on at least one die (say, any 6): 11 of 36, about 31%.
• A specific non-double roll (say, 6-5, shesh-besh): 2 of 36, about 6%.
• A specific double (say, 6-6): 1 of 36, about 3%.

Why longer matches favor skill

One game is a small sample; a match is a bigger one. The more games are played, the more the dice even out and the more the quality of play shows. The FIBS rating formula, which NARDEON uses for its rating, builds this in: the expected result of a match depends on the rating gap multiplied by the square root of the match length, so a stronger player is a bigger favorite in a match to 7 than in a match to 1. Between equally rated players, a longer match also moves both ratings more. Details on the rating page.

When it feels like the dice are against you

Everyone remembers the 6-6 their opponent rolled at the perfect moment and forgets the ones they rolled themselves. If you'd rather check than wonder, NARDEON lets you verify every roll of an online match — see fair dice. And if you want to make your own luck, the strategy page is the place to start.

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Updated: October 24, 2026