Backgammon Odds and Probabilities
Every backgammon decision is a bet on the next roll. You don't need to be a mathematician — a few numbers cover most positions. Here are the backgammon odds worth knowing, with charts.
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Two dice give 36 equally likely combinations: six faces of the first die times six faces of the second. Every number below is simply a count of how many of those 36 combinations work. Note that 6-5 and 5-6 are two different combinations, while the double 6-6 is just one.
Roll probabilities
| Roll | Combinations out of 36 | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Any double | 6 | 16.7% (1 in 6) |
| A specific double, e.g. 6-6 | 1 | 2.8% |
| A specific non-double, e.g. 6-5 | 2 | 5.6% |
| At least one specific number (e.g. a 6) | 11 | 30.6% |
| A total of 7 | 6 | 16.7% |
| Two doubles in a row | — | 2.8% (1 in 36) |
Many rolls have traditional names — 6-5 is shesh besh, 6-6 is du-shesh; the full list is in backgammon dice names. What happens when you roll a double is covered in doubles rules.
Odds of hitting a blot
In backgammon the key question is often "will I get hit?". The answer depends on the distance between your blot and the opponent's checker. The chart is for an open board — if points in between are blocked, the odds drop.
| Distance (pips) | Rolls out of 36 | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 31% |
| 2 | 12 | 33% |
| 3 | 14 | 39% |
| 4 | 15 | 42% |
| 5 | 15 | 42% |
| 6 | 17 | 47% |
| 7 | 6 | 17% |
| 8 | 6 | 17% |
| 9 | 5 | 14% |
| 10 | 3 | 8% |
| 11 | 2 | 6% |
| 12 | 3 | 8% |
- Within six pips is dangerous. A blot 1–6 pips away gets hit by a third to nearly half of all rolls.
- Beyond six is much safer. From 7 pips on, the hit needs both dice combined, and the odds fall to 17% or less.
- Six is the worst distance. Every 6 hits, and so do 5-1, 4-2, 3-3 and 2-2.
How to use this over the board — when to leave a blot and when to hit — is in backgammon strategy.
Odds of entering from the bar
A hit checker re-enters in the opponent's home board. You fail to enter only when both dice show closed points.
| Points closed in the opponent's home board | Chance to enter |
|---|---|
| 1 | 97% |
| 2 | 89% |
| 3 | 75% |
| 4 | 56% |
| 5 | 31% |
| 6 | 0% — the board is closed |
That's why every extra point in your home board matters so much: each one sharply cuts your opponent's chance of getting back into the game. The full rules are in backgammon bar rules.
The average roll and the race
The average total of two dice is 7, but doubles are played four times, so in backgammon the average roll is worth 8 1/6 pips. That gives you a quick way to judge a race: your pip count (the total distance all your checkers still have to travel) divided by 8 is roughly the number of rolls you need.
| Game | Pips at the start | Rolls for the whole journey, roughly |
|---|---|---|
| Long nardy | 360 (15 checkers × 24 points) | over 40, plus rolls lost to awkward numbers |
| Backgammon | 167 | about 20 if nobody gets hit |
On NARDEON, each player's current pip count is shown next to their name.
Why the opponent always seems lucky
People remember painful rolls best. At least one double in six rolls happens about two times in three; two doubles in a row happen once in every 36 pairs of rolls. Over an evening, everyone gets a few such "miracles". Whether the game is more luck or skill is a separate question — see is backgammon luck or skill. And if you suspect the dice, check them: on NARDEON the server publishes a fingerprint of its secret before the match and reveals the secret afterwards, so your browser can recompute every roll — fair dice.
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FAQ
What are the odds of rolling doubles in backgammon?
1 in 6 (16.7%): six of the 36 possible rolls are doubles. A specific double, such as 6-6, is 1 in 36 (2.8%).
What's the chance of hitting a blot 6 pips away?
17 rolls out of 36, about 47% on an open board — the most dangerous distance, because a single 6 and the combinations 5-1, 4-2, 3-3 and 2-2 all hit.
How many pips does an average roll move?
8 1/6. The average of two dice is 7, but doubles are played four times, which lifts the average.
Are the dice fair online?
On NARDEON the server rolls the dice and commits to its secret before the match; after the match it reveals the secret and your browser re-checks every roll.
Updated: October 25, 2026